Predictable, But Still Surprising: Understanding the 3 Enrollment Surges in Childcare

Enrollment in childcare is more predictable than it feels.  When you are sitting in the hot seat, watching families come and go, it can feel like some mysterious force is calling the shots.  I remember feeling like there had to be a pattern, but I was too caught up in fighting to be able to see it. If you have felt this confusion, I am here to help!

Once you understand the three major enrollment shifts that happen every year, you can stop reacting and start preparing. Let’s go through the year.

The first Shift: Back-to-School Frenzy

The biggest enrollment surge comes just before or right after the start of the school year. Whether your local school district starts in August or September, that’s when parents suddenly remember they need childcare. And they move fast.  This is your best chance at a fully enrolled school.  

Some have been planning this and have toured centers in February or March, narrowing their search criteria and evaluating the prospects, and then went silent.  Then in August, they show back up with the forms you gave them earlier in the year filled out, ready to start.  What?  I don’t have room for another 4-year-old girl in Ms. Melissa’s class.  Has this ever happened to you?

Other families seem oblivious to the concept of touring and evaluating, and simply show up and are shocked that you don’t operate like the school district. Surely, they can arrive on a Tuesday ready to fill out paperwork, and their child can start school on the first day of school, like big brother in second grade.  Of course, there will be room for their child, they think.  A school doesn’t turn anyone away; they just make it work.  It doesn’t matter if the program is a good fit.   Their enrollment decisions are driven more by geography than philosophy: It’s on the way to elementary, they saw your bus, and oh, can Jimmie ride with his big brother?

Then there are the ideal families:

• Already on your waiting list

• Paid their deposit

• Came by with their child to get familiar with the classroom

• Communicated clearly

• Confirmed their start date

Sometimes families are enrolled, but don’t come by between the tour and start date, but we have had communication between times, and have solidified their spot in our records.  I am good with them too.  There can also be those who are on your list, have filled out forms, but have not paid or responded to emails or phone calls.  They make me nervous, but I have them penciled into the class roster.

All of these families are responding to the cultural expectations around when school starts.  That is when their child will start.  I have been baffled by parents of infants waiting until late August to enroll their child, when they return to work in June, but different strokes for different folks.  I presume they are also the type to not wear white for half of the year. I can live with that.  Most teachers and directors know about this enrollment shift.  They plan for it and have events, crafts, or lesson plans adjusted for this period of transition.  By the time October rolls around, everyone presumes the classes are pretty solid.  This is what our school will look like this year.  Cool.

Second Shift: The Silent Shopper Season

But no school has had 100% the same student body at the end of the school year that they had at the beginning.  When we’re in it, it seems like folks just trickle in and out.  From the outside, I can tell you, you are missing something.

The key? Watch what happens about 60 days after a child enrolls.

Here is the thing: the first 60 days of enrollment are key to cementing a relationship.  It is like dating.  You agreed to be in this thing together, and at first, you are learning about the other person, and it is exciting.  Then you discover they eat tacos like a heathen.  You get to decide if you can live with that.  Will you just stop eating tacos?  Will you talk to them about the different ways to consume this wonderful food without having to take a hose to the area afterwards?  Will you decide this is a deal breaker?  You have choices.  So do the parents.

During those 60 days, the parents find out that no sick kids means they can’t give their son Tylenol and bring him in.  They learned that you were closed on Columbus Day, when else is the school closed?!?  Their child may have gotten sick or injured, and you didn’t handle it exactly how they thought it should be handled.  You found out they want texts every time their child eats, not an update in the app.  A text..  The teacher is concerned that the child came in the same clothes they went home in last night.  The child is super into roughhousing, and her teacher doesn’t know how to handle it.  So there are thoughts of breaking up.

The Director starts getting calls from parents who are “just getting information for a friend.”  Children disappear for half a day with no explanation (they are trying out another school).  Dads drop in unannounced on lunch breaks, both enrolled and touring.  Moms come by at 4 pm to just hang out.  Parents bring friends and family members with them at pick-up or drop-off.  These are signs of shopping.  Some are signs that they love your program and want to make sure they aren’t missing anything before referring you to their friends who are unhappy at their school, and others are signs that they are unhappy with you and looking to move.

So if a child enrolls on August 22 (the first day of school in the district I grew up in), 2 months later is October 22nd.  Do you think the parents want to change schools right before Halloween?  Then comes Thanksgiving and Christmas.  Families generally wait to actually make the change until January.  Some move sooner, but most wait.  But they are shopping in October, November, and December.  Are you marketing to them?

The Third Shift: Spring and Summer Transition

Spring brings two kinds of families:

1. Those who held on through fall and winter, hoping things would get better—but are still unhappy

2. New families planning for summer or next fall

This is a vital time to prepare for summer enrollment and fall waitlists. Some families leave for Cousin Susie’s summer babysitting service. Others go part-time, or enroll now so their preschooler is settled before August. And some directors... shut down for the summer entirely.

The result? A drop in revenue for some, and a chance to build a budget cushion for others. The difference is preparation.

The last large shift happens at the end of the school year.  This is not a surprise to any teacher or director.  We have seen it many times.  Families pull out in June to have Cousin Susie watch the kids.  They shift to part-time because that works better over the summer.  New families enroll for summer activities. Three-year-olds are enrolled, so they will be settled in for their preschool year.

The spring is spent in planning summer programs, going to the area schools, and talking to your existing clients about all the fun stuff you will be doing over the summer, if you stay open.  For many centers, this is a period of dormancy, where they close or reduce staff for the summer, so the spring is the time to nail down enrollment for the coming year.  Because a mass exodus can be such a blow to the budget, few Directors fail to plan for this shift more than once.  One lean summer is a powerful reminder of the need to get ready for the summer enrollment change.  On the other hand, a super full summer with a budget cushion built is a fabulous way to go into the fall.

So, How do I prepare?

I thought you would never ask.  You start marketing 2-3 months before the shift is expected.  If you aren’t marketing your summer program before Spring Break, you are behind.  Many programs know that, but almost no one is marketing their school in October, November and December.  That means you will have less competition.

Step 1 Start by checking in with all of your newly enrolled families.  Schedule a time with each of them to visit.  See how they like the school.  What questions do they have?  Is there a way to get them involved in a project?  If you can get them involved in planning the Halloween festivities, you might cement the relationship.  Having them survey the parents in their class about what day would be best for a parent’s night out in November and December is a way to get them involved and remind them of your additional services to help busy families.

Step 2 Once you have confidence that you have strengthened your relationships with the new families, take what you learned from them about what they particularly like about your center, and figure out what you should highlight for prospects.  Knowing what is resonating with your ideal client right now is important.

Step 3 Develop a marketing plan.  Assess your most recent marketing plan.  Does it take advantage of the social media networks that your ideal client uses?  Are you sending newsletters out to parents who have toured and/or inquired over the past 12 months?  If blogging is more your style, set up a blog on your website and use that as the basis for your social media and/or newsletter.

Step 4 Set up a system to track all calls and tours and make sure that you follow up with them to get the desired 6-12 contacts with each client.

Step 4 Enroll.

Enrollment Surge 

If you want help putting all this together, I have good news!  We will be working with Directors to develop customized marketing plans to take advantage of the second surge in enrollment.  Together, we will make this the year of the full classroom!!!

The Enrollment Surge Class starts October 28th.  You can use Halloween as your kick-off event for your second surge.  Set up your marketing, events, and program to bring in the RIGHT families for the new year without breaking a sweat!

Join us for a four-week intensive to maximize the upcoming enrollment period. 

You will learn from Kate and Carrie, who have been in your shoes and worked to get full programs with a waiting list following this program.  When we have offered this class in the past, all the programs met their enrollment goals.  Click the link below and join us for this 4-week class.